We here at Superbowl Someday have delusionally maintained, year in and year out, that this year is the year. We are always expecting a Superbowl. Here are some nuggets that we expect will help you to know what to expect when you're expecting a Superbowl.
Off Season
In case you have been in a coma for the last 6 months, the NFL's off season was abbreviated due to the NFL owners locking out the players and the subsequent lawsuits and negotiations. Many so-called experts have noted that the Browns are at significant disadvantage due to the fact that we are implementing new systems on both sides of the ball and introducing a new coaching staff. However, this is water near a bridge. The only thing that matters now is winning on Sundays. You will not hear about the lockout again, unless of course we need to somehow justify a terrible performance or 2.
Preseason
Preseason games are generally worthless in determining what to expect from the regular season. Recent history has shown that the 4-0 preseason Lions were not a good squad, finishing 0-16 in the regular season. Also the Colts almost never win in the preseason and have been in the playoffs for the last 10 years.
However, there are some things that can be taken from the preseason games. Most importantly, Colt McCoy appears to have a good understanding of this offense. It looks like he knows where to go with the ball and did a good job getting the ball into the hands of his backs, tight ends and wide receivers. While it is too soon to say Colt will be a stud in the regular season, the fact that he did not seem overwhelmed was a positive.
The wide receivers do appear to be better suited for the west coast offense. For whatever reason the offense run by former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was just horrible and really hampered the development and production of our young receivers. (Daboll somehow got hired to be the OC in Miami. We will see their pathetic offense week 2.)
The defense has looked promising at times while also looking all to familiar on third downs, giving up large chunks of yards, which allows drives to continue. Lets hope the rookies on the D-line, get up to speed asap. I worry about lack of depth basically everywhere on the defensive side of the ball, but there is enough talent to be middle of the road defense if our guys can stay healthy.
What to Expect From the 2011 Season - Defense
I expect the Browns to be much improved this season. The move back to a 4-3 defense was the right one for the talent that we had on this team. I like the fact that when Tom Heckert identifies an area of weakness, he addresses it in the draft with multiple picks. (2010 Haden and Ward and 2011 Taylor and Sheard)
The secondary looks to be in better shape heading into this year. While many of you know that I was strongly in favor of bringing back Eric Wright, who I think will be better this year than he was last year, I like the makeup of our CBs. Buster Skrine is a hell of a find and appears to be ready to contribute as the teams' nickle or dime back. Undrafted rookie free agent, James Dockery has looked good and will likely see the field at times. Expect Haden to have another great year.
TJ Ward is going to be much more comfortable in Dick Jauron's defense. Expect him to continue developing, particularly in pass coverage. Mike Adams is the starting FS, due to Usama Young's month long recovery from a hamstring injury. I believe that Adams and/or Young is an improvement over Abe Elam, at least from an athletic standpoint. Elam made some plays in his time with the Browns but was often a step too slow.
The linebacking group is a good one. Scott Fujita returns as the leader of the defense and is back in a 4-3, where he has played most of his career. Having D'qwell Jackson back from two season's worth of pectoral injuries is huge for this defense. While he is slightly undersized, he will be all over the field making plays. Let's hope the D Line is good enough to allow Jackson to make plays at or behind the line or scrimmage as opposed to 5-6 yards down field.
Chris Gocong is a bit of a question mark. He has been recovering from a stinger in his neck and has not played throughout this season. Kaluka Maiava has been filling in and has been surprisingly solid. of the three linebacker spots, this is where I have the most concerns, however between the scheme change and the talent, this is probably the best the starting linebackers have been since the return.
The defensive line is starting two rookies in Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard. Both have outstanding physical talent, but will undoubtedly make rookie mistakes. Look for Sheard's development as a pass rusher, but watch out for his issues keeping containment by running too far up the field and allowing the QB or RB to cut up inside. (See Kamerion Wimbley) Taylor and Rubin provide a lot of beef in the middle of the line. This size/strength combo will help our run game. The key for these guys is going to be collapsing the pocket enough so that the QB cannot step up to avoid the outside rush. Look for blitzes in the A gap (either side of the center) to help with the pass rush. (We saw a lot of this against the Eagles, where Vick spent a good portion of the game getting up after taking hits.)
Jayme Mitchell will start at the other DE position. Heckert made the trade for Mitchell last year, but he was not a great fit in the Mangini/Ryan 3-4 and was never utilized. I am not convinced that he will be a difference maker, but am hoping hes a 6-7 sack guy and is strong in the run game. Look for Benard to get some chances during passing situations, as the team believes he is the best natural pass rusher on the roster. Benard came to camp too light, believing that the coaches were going to make him an outside linebacker. He has spend most of camp trying to regain his weight and strength to stay at DE.
What to Expect From the 2011 Season - Offense
The west coast offense will be a sight for sore eyes in Cleveland. Expect this offense to be executed at a fast tempo while previous regimes try to shorten the game by taking time off the clock. Do not fret about the death of our running game. Shurmer is well aware that our running game is the strength of this offense and he will let Hillis do what he does best. With respect to the passing game, expect shorter passes that require precise route running and an element of timing. Expect Colt to throw to an area where the receiver is expected to be. The ball will be out of Colt's hands quickly. Shurmur and Holmgren have said on numerous occasions that this offense is more wide receiver friendly. However if the WRs continue to have problems getting separation, as they have in seasons past, this could be a problem area for the offense.
Don't buy into the Madden curse as it pertains to Peyton Hillis. Hillis of course is a big bruising back that still has relatively low wear on his body, haveing only had one full season as a starting running back. Hillis will not get as many carries as last season due to both the scheme and having other capable running backs on the roster. Having said that, I expect Hillis to have 1200 total yards and he will likely be in the double digits for TDs. Monterio Hardesty is the second running back. A year removed from knee surgery, it will be interesting to see what he can do. I don't expect him to be over worked, at least at this point in the season.
Expect Hardesty to get about 10 touches per game for the time being. Armond Smith is the speady rookie back from Union College in Kentucky. Smith who reportedly runs a 4.36 forty is the kind of speed back that the Browns have been lacking for years. If he can hang onto the ball, he can be a dynamic change of pace on an offense that lacks speed from top to bottom.
The O-line is once again the strength of this offense, anchored by two pro-bowlers in Joe Thomas and Alex Mack. I see no reason why each won't continue to develop and reach yet another probowl. The loss of Eric Steinbach at LG is significant. Lets hope that rookie Jason Pinkston can step up and produce. The Browns have brought in three veterans to solidify the line, in John Greco, Oniel Cousins and Artis Hicks. Shawn Lauvao probably should have started last season at RG, but injuries during camp derailed his chances. He has looked solid in the early going this year. Tony Pashos when healthy is a solid RT. He struggles at times against the speed rush, but is strong in the run game and is an adequate player. However, he is currently in a walking boot and his status for the opener is in doubt. Should he be unable to play, Oniel Cousins will likely start at RT.
The WR group has been getting trashed by the media for the last couple years. Brian Robiskie, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Josh Cribbs have not been causing defensive coordinators many restless nights. However, each appears to be better off coming into this season. Cribbs showed flashes last year, as a threat when the ball is in his hand. With the removal of the wildcat from this offense, look for Shurmur to get Cribbs the ball in other ways.
Robiskie may develop into a decent possession receiver, but he has problems gaining separation against most NFL CBs. As such, the timing aspect of this offense is critical for Robiskie. Lets hope his ability as a route runner show up, or he will not be long for this team. Rookie Greg Little has been getting a lot of hype and rightfully so. We have not had a WR with his talent since Braylon Edwards was dropping balls all over the lakefront. Little, despite not playing last season due to suspension while at North Carolina looks to be a legitimate target for McCoy. Little, a former running back, has the ability to gain yards after the catch, is tough in traffic and has the size to be a number one receiver in the NFL. Jordan Norwood will receive time, presumably as a slot receiver. I like Norwood and hope that he gets a chance to show what he can do. Throughout the preseason he showed the ability to get open and catch the football. While seemingly a simple task, lets not take anything for granted when it comes to our WRs.
Should our WRs again falter, look for the tight ends to pick up the slack. This is a solid group with Ben Watson and Evan Moore being counted on to be Colt's safety blankets. Both cause match up problems and have shown the ability to stretch the field and consistently catch he ball. Rookie Jordan Cameron has tons of natural ability but likely will not get many chances while he has Watson and Moore ahead of him. I expect the TEs to combine for over 85 catches with 9-10 tds.
About the Schedule - the Road to the Superbowl
The football gods have smiled upon the Browns, giving them arguably the easiest schedule through the first 12 weeks of the season. The Browns host the Bengals this Sunday, a team that has been the laughing stock of the readers and writers of this blog for a long time. The offense looks to be based on Ced Benson, as they break in Andy Dalton at QB. The Bengal's defense will be solid, but the loss of Jonathan Joseph at CB is significant. The Browns should win this game. If not, well, we have a lot to worry about and we can start looking forward to the draft and a top 5 pick.
We then play the Colts, likely without Peyton Manning at the helm. Even with notable veteran Kerry Collins having recently signed, the Colts do not scare many people without Manning. Their offense is based 100% on Manning's abilities both physically and his mental ability to recognize defenses and pick them apart. This is a very winnable game. We think unless Manning plays, the Browns should win this one and be 2-0.
Next we have the Dolphins. While the Phin's defense is above average and we've played some really sloppy games against them of late, the offense is probably going to regress under 2nd time offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. We witnessed such poor playcalling the last two years that I just cannot imagine him using Chad Henne and Reggie Bush to beat us. 3-0
Tennessee then comes to Cleveland looking for a piece of us. The Titans are another team with a new coach, new system, new QB and some serious concerns. However this is still a talented team with Chris Johnson ready to prove his new mega-contract was no fluke. Matt Hasselbeck is now the Titans QB, behind a good O-line, and decent wide receivers. The Titans defense is solid but has lost some key players to free agency. This is a winnable game for the Browns, but so far the biggest threat. To close to call = 4-0.
Following the bye week, we play Oakland, Seattle and San Fran. Each of these games is very winnable, with Oakland, yes you read that right, being the best of the bunch. We have had problems playing Oakland even when they were worse, so I see us losing to Oakland but winning the other two. 6-1.
Houston is next, and they appear to be a playoff team this year. Last year their secondary was just horrific. Adrian Foster, Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub power an impressive offense. Browns come up short here and drop one on the road to a good team. 6-2.
The next three are going to make or break our season. We play the Rams, Jags and Bengals. Again I expect to win 2 out of 3, with the toughest game being against the Rams. The Jags are looking more and more like they will be playing a rookie QB at that time and the Bengals again just plain suck at life. 8-3.
At this point I will be clamoring to have an 11 game season and to begin the playoffs. Our next 5 games are against the Cardinals and the Steelers and Ravens twice. The Cardinals are beatable. Baltimore and Pittsburgh will both be top 6 teams when its said and done barring any drastic injuries. This is a tough division. I think best case scenario is that we split with our division rivals and beat the Cards. Worse case is we go 0-5 in that stretch. I think we will win 2 of those 5 and end up 10-6. Realistically we'll probably lose a couple we should have won and win one we should have lost. I think we will go anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6. Hopefully we build up enough confidence with our very young team that we can do even better.
Like 2007, I'm not sure if that is enough for a playoff bid.
SUPERBOWL!
Matt Flynn was a 7th round draft pick out of LSU in 2008 by the Packers to be Aaron Rodger's (RODGERS!!!!). Flynn has lit up two playoff caliber teams in his 2 career starts with the Packers since being drafted. However, some of the reasons that he was a 7th round draft pick still exist in his game today. Mainly, he does not have a great arm and is surrounded by superbowl caliber talent in Green Bay, which makes him look better.
